HOW TO READ THE MODELS:
- Every projection model has the following four items…
- A line/selection. Whether for kills, headshots (HS), FPTS, etc. This is what the sites have the player set at
- Odds. These are the odds for the TEAM to win
- A projection. This can be for kills, headshots (HS), FPTS, etc. This is what we are projecting for the player
- A diff. This is the difference between what the line the sites have and what we are projecting the player to have
- The process of reading the model is simple…
- If a player has a positive diff, take their higher
- For example, from the screenshot above, rigoN has a +1.40 diff which means he’s projected for 1.4 more kills than the line/selection offered by the site
- If a player has a negative diff, take their lower
- For example, from the screenshot above, sinnopsyy has a -1.35 diff which means he’s projected for 1.35 fewer kills than the line/selection offered by the site
- If a player has a positive diff, take their higher
When to Consider Plays:
There are different thresholds to keep an eye on when considering plays. This varies between stat-type offerings and series length.
- General Notes
- The projections, for every esports, should be used as a strong starting point and a tool for research, not conviction.
- For CS2, the expected maps are not included in the projections. Their projections are based on their overall statistics.
- For CS2, avoid playing a higher and lower from the same game as its negative correlation. The fewer rounds always benefit lowers and the more rounds always benefit highers.
- For CS2, headshots are more volatile, especially for AWPers
- For LoL, avoid playing kill or assist highers from both teams in a game as oftentimes in LoL, the winning team ends up with more kills (and assists).
- First Blood and AWP Kills are new offerings, their thresholds are still TBD.
- Combo offering thresholds are multiplied by the number of players in the combo. For example, a traditional 1 difference with two players would be a 2 difference, three players a 3 difference, etc, etc.
- BO1 & BO3 (Map 1 & Maps 1+2)
- For Kills, Assists, Deaths, and Headshots, a +/- 1 difference (diff) is a must, anything lower is a fade. Anything from 1-1.99 should be considered as a lean and played at a smaller unit size. The preferred target range is +/- 2 or greater.
- For FPTS, a +/- 3 difference (diff) is a must, anything lower is a fade. Anything from 3-5.99 should be considered as a lean and played at a smaller unit size. The preferred target range is +/- 6 or greater.
- BO1s are often more volatile so regardless of the difference, expect the variance to be higher.
- BO5 (Maps 1+2+3)
- For Kills, Assists, Deaths, and Headshots, a +/- 2 difference (diff) is a must, anything lower is a fade. Anything from 2-2.99 should be considered as a lean and played at a smaller unit size. The preferred target range is +/- 3 or greater.
- For FPTS, a +/- 6 difference (diff) is a must, anything lower is a fade. Anything from 6-8.99 should be considered as a lean and played at a smaller unit size. The preferred target range is +/- 9 or greater.