Every spring, a handful of pitchers arrive at camp with something to prove. Maybe the surface numbers from last season didn’t reflect the stuff on the mound. Maybe a Tommy John surgery finally belongs to the past. Maybe a partial-year debut left everyone wanting more or the exact opposite – a pitcher who completely lost his stuff but has tinkered over the last few months with more to prove. The 2026 season is loaded with young arms that fit that description — pitchers whose underlying numbers, velocity profiles, and pitch-level data suggest a significant leap could be coming.
This list zeroes in on starters 27 and under with genuine “next step” upside. For each pitcher, we’re going beneath the traditional ERA “household media” line to look at what Statcast and advanced metrics say about what’s really happening on the mound. Age curves, pitch design, pitch shape, xERA, FIP, xFIP, whiff rates, spin rates, and exit velocity data all are different puzzle pieces that create a picture of where these guys are headed.
A quick note on methodology: all statistics were sourced from Baseball Savant, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference. For pitchers who debuted mid-season or are still in the minors, minor league Statcast data and prospect-level metrics are incorporated where available. On top of that, we’ll mention a few names on this list that either A) played in the WBC, B) could be battling or coming back from injury, and C) could mix in from a bullpen angle but has been seen as a starting-level MLB arm in the near future.
1. Nolan McLean — New York Mets • RHP • Age 24
Eight starts. Forty-eight innings. A 2.06 ERA. For a pitcher making his major league debut in the final weeks of a playoff push, those numbers alone would turn heads. What makes McLean’s introduction to big-league hitters genuinely exciting isn’t just the ERA — it’s what lives underneath it.
Also: yes, I know, McLean is going to be the most popular name on this list to the casual ball-knower. I promise I’m going somewhere here with the rest of the list.
His expected ERA of 3.56 and FIP of 2.97 both suggest that a 2.06 ERA involved some good fortune on batted balls, but they also confirm he was the real deal. His 30.3% strikeout rate and 60.2% ground-ball rate form a combination that very few pitchers at any age can claim — the ability to dominate via swings-and-misses while simultaneously generating weak contact when hitters do make contact. We love these elite parameters for daily player prop discussion and DFS platforms.
The centerpiece of his arsenal is a sweeper that spins at roughly 2,929 RPM and generates 16 to 17 inches of horizontal break. That pitch alone would make him interesting. Pair it with a curveball that averages 3,248 RPM — and produces a 50% whiff rate — and you have two of the most spin-efficient breaking balls in the game on the same arm. His four-seamer registered a 37.1% whiff rate as well, a figure that holds up against any frontline starter in baseball.
The path forward is clear: stay healthy, sharpen command of his sinker against right-handed hitters, and limit the damage his sweeper can do when it catches too much of the plate. If 2025 was a preview, 2026 is the feature presentation. He should be viewed as one of the stars of this piece and while most of you reading this probably already know how good he is, we may be walking into a conversation that previews Cy Young phrasing very soon.
2. Chase Burns — Cincinnati Reds • RHP • Age 22
There are debuts, and then there is Chase Burns’ debut. The No. 2 pick in the 2024 draft walked to the mound against the New York Yankees on June 24 of last season and proceeded to strike out the first five batters he faced — the first pitcher to do that since at least the Expansion Era. He went on to become the first pitcher in MLB history to record 10 or more strikeouts in four of his first eight career starts. That’s not a debut. That’s a statement.
His ERA from that first taste in the majors was inflated by a BABIP well above .350 — the kind of batted-ball bad luck that happens when you’re still learning to navigate a lineup at the highest level. His FIP (2.44) and xERA (3.11) told a very different story from the surface number. With a slider generating a 70% whiff rate on swings in his debut outing and a curveball that followed at 64%, Burns is dealing two legitimate swing-and-miss weapons at 22 years old. The stuff is absolutely electric at its best, but late last summer we did see that while the strikeout upside is through the roof, there were times where offenses absolutely exposed him (see 5 ER in his second start against Boston and 5 ER allowed to the Nationals in his 5th start).
When you fold in his minor league work, Burns struck out 156 hitters while allowing just 79 hits and 29 walks across every level in 2025. The command still requires attention — there were nights where the slider was filthy and the fastball location wandered. But the upside here is undeniable, and that xERA suggests the ingredients for a sub-3.50 season are already in his hands.
A full spring training and a full rotation spot in Cincinnati is all Burns needs. If the command takes even a modest step forward, the underlying metrics suggest a top-15 starting pitcher season is well within reach.
NOTE: The Reds announced last week that they will open the season with six starters on the MLB roster following the injury to Hunter Greene. Andrew Abbott will be the Opening Day starter while Nick Lodolo and Brady Singer are next up in a three-man series. Brandon Williamson, Rhett Lowder, and Burns all secured roster spots, though it’s unclear how they are going to approach the back end of the rotation (we could see piggy-back starting situations for those final three arms).
3. Eury Pérez — Miami Marlins • RHP • Age 22
Pérez missed all of 2024 recovering from Tommy John surgery. When he came back in June of 2025, the first four outings were rocky — a 6.19 ERA across 13 innings while he found his footing. What happened after that is the reason his name belongs near the top of this list.
Over his final 16 starts, Pérez posted a 3.86 ERA and 0.96 WHIP with a 91:22 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 79.1 innings. That’s the production of a legitimate ace in the making. His full-season FIP of 3.67 confirms it wasn’t a mirage (the xFIP of 4.07 put him at 65th in MLB among starters who pitched at least 60 innings last year). His fastball sat at 97.9 mph on average and ranked in the 94th percentile league-wide for velocity — the surgery didn’t touch it. Per Fangraphs, Perez’s 27.3% strikeout rate last season ranked 24th in MLB among starters who, as mentioned above, pitched 60+ innings in 2025.
What makes 2026 compelling is that Pérez is still only 22, hasn’t had a full healthy season since his brief pre-TJ debut, and worked this offseason with the Marlins’ pitching staff to rework his secondary pitch mix. He added a sweeper with over a foot of added glove-side movement on top of his existing curveball and changeup. More weapons, a healthy arm, and a track record of elite second-half pitching. The full-season projection is somewhere in the 3.67–3.80 ERA range with double-digit strikeouts per nine in his future.
When a pitcher with a 97.9 mph fastball and a full four-pitch mix posts a 0.96 WHIP over 16 starts before his 23rd birthday, you pay attention. Pérez has not had a clean, full, healthy season yet. When he does, the league will know his name.
4. Bubba Chandler — Pittsburgh Pirates • RHP • Age 22
Bubba Chandler made his MLB debut on August 22, 2025 with a fastball that touched 102 mph. That in itself is worth remembering. The more impressive part of Chandler’s brief debut wasn’t the velocity — it was the restraint. In 31.1 innings across his first big-league appearances, he posted a 0.93 WHIP with 31 strikeouts against just four walks. Four. For a 22-year-old with a triple-digit heater, that is remarkable command.
His pitch mix in the majors leaned heavily on a four-seamer (54%), complemented by a changeup (23%), a slider (18%), and a curveball (6%). The fastball averaged 98.9 mph across his MLB appearances. His final three starts were a window into what a full season might look like: 19 strikeouts and zero walks in 16.2 innings.
The Pirates are rebuilding around young talent, and Chandler represents one of the most physically gifted arms in that group. His 2024 Double-A/Triple-A work produced a 30.9% strikeout rate and an 8.6% walk rate — elite control metrics for a power arm — and his MLB debut suggested those skills transferred. A full 2026 rotation slot is his. The question is how quickly the ceiling arrives and how willing Pittsburgh is to lean into their young talent.
You can teach pitchers to throw harder. You can work on pitch shapes. What you cannot teach is a 22-year-old throwing 99 mph with the command of a veteran. Chandler already has that. A full spring and a full year in Pittsburgh’s rotation could make him a household name.
5. Andrew Painter — Philadelphia Phillies • RHP • Age 22
Before his elbow gave out in the spring of 2023, Andrew Painter was doing things in the minor leagues that made scouts reach for superlatives. A 1.48 ERA. A sub-0.90 WHIP. Over 167 strikeouts in 109 innings at age 19. He was on track to become one of the best starting pitching prospects in a generation. Then came the surgery, and then came the long wait.
The 2025 season was Painter’s first full year back, and by his own admission, it was a work-in-progress. His arm slot had shifted slightly post-surgery, command was inconsistent at Triple-A, and the results reflected it — a 5.26 ERA with a 1.49 WHIP across 118 innings at multiple levels. But the velocity was back. The arsenal was back. He simply hadn’t put it all together yet.
Then came March 1, 2026. His first Spring Training appearance against the Yankees: two perfect innings, fastball touching 97.8 mph and averaging 96.8 mph, arm slot corrected, hitters off-balance. The Phillies immediately slotted him into the 2026 Opening Day rotation. This is what the baseball world has been waiting to see for three years. On top of that, this dude is a giant (6’7”) and still just 22 years old.
A “next step” entry unlike any other on this list — Painter’s ceiling is legitimate ace territory. If the arm slot holds and the command from Spring Training carries over, 2026 is the debut that was delayed by three years but never in doubt. He should be the leader in this rotation for years to come once he starts to trust his breaking pitches more.
6. Luis Morales — Athletics • RHP • Age 22
If you missed Luis Morales’ MLB debut last season, you are not alone. The Athletics quietly promoted their Cuban import — who had never pitched above High-A before his call-up — and watched him post a 3.14 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 48.2 innings in nine starts. For reference: that ERA would have ranked among the better full-season totals in the American League last year.
Morales arrives at each outing with a fastball that averaged 97.3 mph and touched 99.4, and three secondary weapons that all miss bats at an impressive rate. His sweeper generated a 38% whiff rate. His slider clocked in at 38.7% whiff rate. Even his changeup, at 25%, is an effective offering. The pitch-level Statcast data paints a picture of a pitcher with multiple legitimate put-away pitches — a profile that typically produces sustained strikeout success as a career matures. There will be growing pains here, especially in situations where he’ll have to pitch in hitter-friendly Sacramento, but the upside is certainly there.
His major league K% sat at 21.6%, noticeably below the 30% he approached in the minors. That gap is almost entirely explained by his late promotion and the adjustment period every young pitcher faces at the highest level. Exit velocity allowed (89 mph) and xwOBA (.325) both suggest he was keeping hitters off balance. The Athletics are in a building phase, and Morales is one of the central pieces of that future. The rest of the rotation could probably end up being one of the worst in baseball, but Morales could be the lone bright spot.
A 3.14 ERA in your big-league debut without ever having pitched above A-ball is extraordinary. Now imagine what happens when the command refines and the strikeout rate catches up to what the pitch metrics suggest is there. Morales is the most under-the-radar starter on this list, and probably one of the most fun to watch this April. Again, due to the team he plays on and the park he pitches in, there could be a few rocky starts here. With that said, he’s a fun name to bring up that few will be throwing out there.
7. Shane Baz — Baltimore Orioles • RHP • Age 26
Baz finally pitched a full season in 2025. After years of injury interruptions, he took the mound 31 times for Tampa Bay, logged 166.1 innings, and posted 176 strikeouts. The fact that the Rays then traded him in December — extracting four prospects and a draft pick from Baltimore — tells you how much the league values what’s underneath his surface numbers.
That 4.87 ERA is the number most people focus on, but the context matters enormously. Baz’s road ERA in 2025 was 3.86 — the home number was bloated by the unique conditions at Steinbrenner Field, Tampa Bay’s temporary venue, which played exceptionally poorly for pitchers last season. His FIP of 4.37 and K-BB% of 15.8% suggest a pitcher better than his ERA implies, pitching in an environment that exaggerated his flaws.
Now he moves to Camden Yards with a clean slate and a rotation that gives him room to succeed. His knuckle-curve grades as one of the more effective curveballs in the game, generating whiffs with its downward bite. The fastball operates at the 88th percentile of velocity. At 25, Baz is right at the age where pitchers typically take their most significant step forward. The raw materials are there. Now he just needs the address to match the ability.
A pitcher with 176 strikeouts and a 3.86 road ERA is not a 4.87 ERA pitcher. Context corrects for Steinbrenner Field. Camden Yards and a full offseason with new teammates should be the combination that closes the gap between what Baz is and what his numbers have shown so far.
8. Max Meyer — Miami Marlins • RHP • Age 27
You already know the frustrating part of Meyer’s story. Hip impingement, labral repair surgery, a season cut in half. That is where most narratives about him begin and end. But the first five starts of 2025 deserve a serious look before anyone writes off this version of Meyer.
Through April 21 of last season, Meyer had a sub-3.0 ERA, posted a WHIP under 1.5 and a 41:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 30 innings. On April 21 against Cincinnati, he struck out 14 — a career high — in six scoreless innings. The slider, which generated a 42.4% whiff rate across his entire 2025 sample, is a true bat-misser. The full-season FIP of 4.41 in just 12 starts suggests limited sample, not limited ability. On the flip side, things did get dark in the month of May before his season ended in early June – he allowed 3+ ER in five of his last six appearances.
The real story of Meyer’s 2026 is health. He spent this offseason focused on two specific mechanical adjustments: restoring the depth on his changeup and increasing the induced vertical break on his fastball. Both are pitch-design goals that, if accomplished, should make him harder to square up even when the slider is located properly. If he takes the mound 28 times in 2026, a sub-3.70 ERA is a real outcome. When he was at his best, he was elite (his 3.51 xFIP ranked 24th in MLB last year among starters with at least 60 innings pitched). When he was at his worst, he was a home run machine with a lack of punchout execution.
A pitcher’s body of work is always incomplete when injuries interfere. What Meyer showed in the first five starts of 2025 is enough to remind us what he is capable of. A healthy 2026 is the only missing ingredient.
9. Connelly Early — Boston Red Sox • RHP • Age 23
When Connelly Early made his MLB debut on September 9, 2025 against Oakland, he did two things: he struck out 11 batters in five scoreless innings, and he tied a franchise record that had stood for 48 years. Only three pitchers in MLB history have ever allowed zero runs and one or fewer walks while striking out 10 or more batters in their big-league debut. Early is one of them.
His 2025 minor league numbers tell the same story in different digits. A 10-3 record, 2.60 ERA, 132 strikeouts across 100.1 innings split between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Worcester. In his four September MLB starts, he punched out 29 batters in 19.1 innings. The fastball — sitting 92–95 mph with a peak of 97 — plays up because of his release angle and deception, and his changeup is broadly regarded as an above-average pitch with genuine arm-side run. He works with five pitches, giving hitters five different looks per at-bat.
Early is one of the more quietly underrated names on this list. He doesn’t throw 100 mph. He’s not a top-five draft pick. He’s a 23-year-old with command, four above-average pitches, and a changeup that makes right-handed hitters uncomfortable. Those are the building blocks of a No. 3 or No. 4 starter with No. 2 upside on good days.
Boston has a crowded rotation picture heading into 2026, but Early’s debut performance and improvements this offseason makes a compelling argument for his spot in it by the summer (if we get some injuries or rocky stretches).
10. Robby Snelling — Miami Marlins • LHP • Age 22
Robby Snelling ranked fourth among all minor leaguers in strikeouts in 2025. He was named the Marlins’ Minor League Pitcher of the Year. He finished with a 2.51 ERA across 136 innings between Double-A Pensacola and Triple-A Jacksonville, walking 39 and striking out 166. His K/BB rate of 23.2% was among the best in the system at any level. Left-handed, physically projectable, and armed with a pitch mix that gets nastier every year.
What sets Snelling apart from a standard “prospect about to debut” narrative is the quality of his whiff numbers. His four-seamer — averaging 94.5 mph and touching 99 — generated a 30% miss rate and 31% chase rate. At Triple-A, those figures climbed to 37% and 40% respectively. He reshaped his slider into a tighter gyro shape this past offseason and has continued developing his curveball and changeup as weapons against right-handed hitters.
He will begin 2026 at Triple-A Jacksonville, but with Sandy Alcántara and Eury Pérez leading Miami’s rotation and the team looking for young pieces to build around, Snelling is a phone call away. He started the Marlins’ Grapefruit League opener in February, and while his second spring outing was uneven, the stuff was there. This is a name to bookmark for the second half of the season. By July or even earlier, we should likely be hearing rumblings about giving him a shot at a MLB debut. A 22-year-old southpaw with a 30%+ strikeout rate and a triple-digit fastball is not a secret you can keep forever.
GUYS WHO JUST MISSED THE CUT:
Emmet Sheehan — Los Angeles Dodgers • RHP • Age 25
Lost in the noise of a Dodgers super-team loaded with Yamamoto, Glasnow, Snell, and Ohtani is Emmet Sheehan, who quietly posted a 2.82 ERA and 2.93 FIP in 73.1 innings after returning from a hybrid Tommy John-plus-internal-brace procedure. His 30.6% strikeout rate and 10.9 K/9 are elite numbers. His fastball averages mid-90s and touches 99. He works with four pitches, and the slider and changeup both grade above average. In any other rotation in baseball, Sheehan would be the headliner of a breakout conversation. In LA, he barely registers. With that said, he was informed on March 21st that he will begin the season at the back end of the rotation given Snell’s injury. There has also been some scary lack of velocity from his fastball across his last starts of Spring (averaging low 90s, his fastball was averaging 95.7 last year).
Matthew Liberatore — St. Louis Cardinals • LHP • Age 26
Through May 24 of last season, Liberatore allowed more than 3 ER in just two of his first 10 starts (7 quality starts), including a stretch where his walk rate (3.8%) was among the lowest of any starter in the sport. He faded in the second half and finished at a 4.21 ERA across 151.2 innings (including a stretch in June where he was one of the worst starters in baseball), but a 4.03 FIP in that many innings for a 24-year-old left-hander in St. Louis’s rotation is a relative floor, not the ceiling. The first-half version is the one worth projecting forward, though his lack of offensive run support muddies the future a bit. Liberatore looked good in Spring Training – he posted 15 innings, allowed 3 ER total, walked only two hitters, and recorded 19 punchouts.
Gavin Williams — Cleveland Guardians • RHP • Age 26
Gavin Williams went 12-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 173 strikeouts in 167.2 innings last season, and somehow remains one of the most discussed-only-in-Cleveland pitchers in the American League. The issue is walks — his 83 free passes led all of baseball. When you look at his SIERA (4.35), the walk rate explains the gap between what his ERA shows and what the underlying models project. But here’s the thing: in the second half of 2025, he went 7-1 with a 2.18 ERA and cut his walk rate from 5.3 BB/9 to 3.3 BB/9. A mechanical adjustment he made in June started paying dividends by July. If that adjustment holds through a full season, Williams is a name to pay attention to.
